Companies paying dividends: Cordiant Digital Infrastructure (2.25p)
Thursday 31 July
Economics: Nationwide house price index
Trading updates: Next (NXT)
Interims: Aberdeen (ABDN), Anglo American (AAL), Coats (COA), Elementis (ELM), Endeavour Mining (EDV), Haleon (HLN), Hammerson (HMSO), Helios Towers (HTWS), London Stock Exchange (LSEG), Melrose Industries (MRO), Mondi (MNDI), Rentokil Initial (RTO), Robert Walters (RWA), Rolls-Royce (RR.), Schroder Oriental Income Fund (SOI), Schroders (SDR), Segro (SGRO), Shell (SHEL), Standard Chartered (STAN), Unilever (ULVR)
Companies paying dividends: Amedeo Air Four Plus (2p), BioPharma Credit ($0.0175), BP (BP.B), Compass (16.7p), Doric Nimrod Air Three (7.5p), European Assets Trust (1.38p), JPMorgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust (1p), Kitwave (4p), Lowland Investment Company (1.65p), North American Income Trust (2.8p), Personal Assets Trust (3p), Schroder Income Growth Fund (3.25p), Schroder Japan Trust (2.87p), Volta Finance (€0.16), WHSmith (11.3p), Camellia (260p), Edinburgh Investment Trust (7.5p), Fidelity China Special Situations (9p), Shires Income (5.2p), Tatton Asset Management (9.5p), Templeton Emerging Markets (3.25p), Wynnstay Property (17p)
Friday 1 Aug
Interims: IMI (IMI), International Consolidated Airlines (IAG), Intertek (ITRK)
Companies paying dividends: B&M European Value Retail SA (9.7p), DiscoverIE (8.6p), GB Group (4.4p), Intermediate Capital (56.7p), Motorpoint (1p), Next (158p), Norcros (6.9p), Tate & Lyle (13.4p), United Utilities (34.57p), Vianet (1p), Vodafone (€0.02), Workspace (19p), British American Tobacco (60.06p), CT UK High Income Trust (1.37p), Mercantile Investment Trust (1.55p), TwentyFour Select Monthly Income Fund (0.75p), CC Japan Income & Growth Trust (1.65p), F&C Investment Trust (3.8p), Heavitree Brewery (2.75p), Heavitree Brewery “A” (2.75p), NCC (1.5p), Premier Miton (3p), TwentyFour Income Fund (2p)
Powell vs Trump heats up: Economic week ahead: 28 July-1 August
US monetary policy is set to stay on hold, to the anger of some
Dan Jones
Dan Jones
This much we know: barring some unforeseen emergency, the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates next week. The pertinent question is how the US president will react. Donald Trump’s criticisms of Fed chair Jerome Powell for not easing policy have intensified this month, albeit investors continue to treat this as little more than posturing.
The nonchalance has some justification: any genuine attempt to remove Powell, whose term as chair runs until next May and who will continue to sit on the Fed board of governors until January 2028, would face significant legal obstacles. Perhaps more to the point, the market reaction – one of the few restraints on the president so far this year – would be severe.
Still, with US economic data still showing no real sign of weakness (latest jobs figures are released next Friday), the chances of no rate cut in September, let alone July, are rising. At the very least, Trump’s verbal attacks are likely to continue into the autumn.
As investors become more cautious about the fate of US markets, we go in search of lesser-known companies around the world that have delivered great returns
Michael Fahy
Investors betting against the US stock market have fared badly over the past decade, with the S&P 500 trouncing other major global indices. The index’s return has been twice as good as its nearest competitor, Japan’s Nikkei 225, over this period.
In fact, US markets have beaten global (ex-US) indices for 30 of the past 50 years – and 13 of the past 15, according to RBC Brewin Dolphin. This appreciation has led to a substantial valuation gap. At the end of June, US large-cap shares were trading at a cyclically adjusted price/earnings (CAPE) ratio of 37.3, compared with 19.3 for developed (ex-US) large caps, according to Alex Pickard, senior vice-president at Research Affiliates.
There are obvious reasons for this – US large caps have delivered annualised real returns of 10.3 per cent over a trailing 10-year period, compared with just 3.9 per cent for their developed market peers, he notes.
Yet “rising protectionism, fiscal imbalances and weakening demand for the US dollar and Treasuries” mean investors are already starting to look elsewhere, according to Aviva Investors.
All of which, when coupled with the increasing concentration of the US market, means it makes sense to look elsewhere for opportunities. So we did.
We have run screens on 65 of the larger and more liquid global markets, seeking companies that provided some of the highest total shareholder returns over a 10-year period.
Returns were measured in US dollars to avoid markets where outsized nominal returns are merely the result of very high inflation and rapidly devaluing currencies. Companies with the highest absolute returns that have already become household names, such as Germany’s Rheinmetall (DE:RHM), are excluded.
We have chosen one company per country, and deliberately focus on larger entities with a decent chunk of free-floating shares to ensure enough liquidity.
The result is a diverse group of companies that include an Australian gold miner, a Korean noodle-maker and a Polish games developer.
Each has achieved a compound annual return of at least 25 per cent in dollar terms over the past decade. Of course, the usual caveat should be added that such screens are generally backward-looking, and it is rare for companies to maintain such strong growth rates over long periods.
Another obvious reason for caution is that these companies’ strong returns mean, in many cases, that they too trade on elevated valuations. We have taken this into account in the analysis below. In any case, the purpose of the list is to be a source of ideas for those looking at overseas shares beyond the US, and those keen to find out more about the most successful under-the-radar companies of the past decade.
All figures are as at 16 July and taken from FactSet.
Capricorn Metals
Domicile: Australia
Market cap (US$): $2.7bn
Compound annual return (10y, US$): 58.6%
Free float: 84.1%
Given a 200 per cent increase in the gold price in US dollar terms over the past 10 years, it’s hardly surprising that a gold miner made this list. That Capricorn Metals (AU:CMM) has delivered a cumulative annual return of almost 60 per cent – compared with a sector average for listed gold miners of 16 per cent – shows this hasn’t been achieved just by betting on prospects for the yellow metal.
Over the past decade, Capricorn has gone from being a lossmaking mining prospect to an established operator. In the financial year that closed last month, its Karlawinda gold mine in Western Australia produced 117,000 ounces (oz) of gold, which was at the top end of expectations.
The mine’s all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of about A$1,420 (£680) means it’s currently throwing off lots of cash given an average sale price of A$4,603 per oz in the third quarter. Capricorn is ploughing some of the proceeds into reopening Mt Gibson – another mine in Western Australia that closed in 1999 when the gold price fell below A$500 per oz. With the current price at 10 times this level, Capricorn’s management thinks the company can earn a post-capex, pre-tax gross profit of $3,300 an oz on reopening, meaning it would be capable of generating free cash flow of A$3.2bn over its 17-year lifespan.
Bringing Mt Gibson back would be relatively low-risk, says David Coates, an analyst with investment bank Bell Potter. However, at its current market capitalisation of A$4.1bn he views Capricorn as “well valued”.
Samyang Foods
Domicile: South Korea
Market cap: $8.1bn
Compound annual return: 48.7%
Free float: 55%
Instant noodles are not a new phenomenon. They were invented in the late 1950s by Japan’s Nissin Foods, making their first UK appearance in the 1970s when Golden Wonder launched Pot Noodles. In recent years, though, it is South Korea’s Samyang Foods (KR:003230) that has taken the market by storm with its super-spicy Buldak brand.
Buldak has been embraced in the US, where Samyang only started selling four years ago but which now generates more than a fifth of its sales. It has become a favourite among younger consumers, boosted by a viral TikTok campaign known as the ‘Fire Noodle Challenge’, says Sunny Moon, a research manager at data analytics company Euromonitor International.
“This elevated positioning has translated into pricing power and strong shelf presence,” Moon says.
Samyang Foods’ overseas sales have grown from 57 per cent five years ago to 80 per cent in the first quarter of this year, notes Kwon Woojeong, an analyst at Kyobo Securities. The share price has increased more than 10-fold over the same period, and the shares now trade at 25 times forecast earnings, bringing them just a fraction below analysts’ consensus target price on FactSet.
Argenx
Domicile: Belgium
Market cap: $34.2bn
Compound annual return: 45.9%
Free float: 99.9%
Argenx (BE:ARGX) is a biotechnology business named after the Argonauts. Whether this is a reference picked up from the third-century-BC Greek poem or the 1963 film that is a stalwart of the festive viewing schedule is not entirely clear, but the source of inspiration for the company is the same – it represents the power of collective efforts to achieve seemingly impossible tasks.
In Argenx’s case, this refers to tackling autoimmune diseases. Revenue almost doubled to €2.2bn (£1.9bn) last year on the back of sales of its first products, Vyvgart and Vyvgart Hytrulo, following US Food and Drug Administration approvals.
Chief executive Tim Van Hauwermeiren and chair Peter Verhaeghe told shareholders that they expect the group “to reach sustainable profitability during 2025”, with the proceeds being used to fund the development of new therapies.
Analysts expect sales of Vyvgart to hit €5.1bn within three years and for Argenx to generate a pre-tax profit of about €2bn off the back of this. So although the shares look expensive at 44 times current-year earnings forecasts, this would fall to 27 times next year and 19 times in 2027 if those targets were met.
CATL
Domicile: China
Market cap: $171bn
Compound annual return: 42.6%
Free float: 45.7%
Contemporary Amperex Technology, better known as CATL (HK:3750), has been one of the beneficiaries of the boom in Hong Kong listings this year.
The battery-maker, whose above returns are based on its more established listing on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (CN:300750), raised HK$35.5bn (£3.3bn).
The proceeds are being used to fund a €7.3bn factory in Hungary due to begin production this year. It has also just broken ground on a $6bn plant in Indonesia.
CATL has become the world’s biggest battery-maker for EVs, with a 38 per cent global market share, according to SNE Research. Although it doesn’t supply market leader BYD (HK:1211), it serves almost every other major EV-maker in China, including Tesla Motors (US:TSLA).
Despite heavy levels of investment, the company continues to earn decent margins – the FactSet consensus is for a pre-tax margin of about 19 per cent this year.
Swissquote
Domicile: Switzerland
Market cap: $9.2bn
Compound annual return: 37.8%
Free float: 70.1%
An online banking platform with a Swiss banking licence that has expanded its services through partnerships and acquisitions, Swissquote (CH:SQN) moved into forex dealing in 2010 and then derivatives and cryptocurrency trading. Over the past decade, client assets have risen fivefold to SFr76.3bn (£70.7bn), while earnings per share have grown at a compound annual rate of 58 per cent.
But there are signs that expectations are running ahead of earnings momentum. The shares are up 50 per cent in the year to date, bringing Swissquote’s valuation to 24 times FactSet consensus forecasts.
UBS downgraded the shares to a sell last month, with analyst Haley Tam pointing to exchange data showing falls in cryptocurrency trading volumes and competitors reporting slowdowns in activity. Other analysts still rate the company as a buy, but the share price has recently crept above brokers’ consensus target price.
Kitron
Domicile: Norway
Market cap: $1.3bn
Compound annual return (10y, US$): 36.9%
Free float: 85%
Kitron (NO:KIT) is a manufacturer and assembler of parts with embedded electronics used in a broad range of sectors including telecoms, medical devices and defence. It floated on the Oslo market in the 1990s and now has operations in 11 countries, employing 2,400 staff.
Revenue and profit have been lumpy – in part due to acquisitions, but also due to the whipsawing of demand and availability of parts post-Covid.
Although Kitron reported a 15 per cent fall in revenue last year, group sales are still more than double pre-pandemic levels.
And strong demand from the defence sector – for parts used in drones, communications equipment and radar – meant an uptick in orders and a tightening of guidance around the upper range of expectations.
Although earnings forecasts for this year are improving, they are still expected to be lower than they were two years ago given the company’s reduced revenues. So it is perhaps unsurprising that shares are trading at 27 times earnings – a premium to their long-run average. A 35 per cent increase in the consensus earnings forecast for next year brings the shares back down to a ratio of 20 times, however.
Chapters
Domicile: Germany
Market cap: $1.3bn
Compound annual return: 36.1%
Free float: 55.5%
Chapters (DE:CHG) is a software group that has grown by acquiring smaller peers, growing from nine operating companies in 2020 to 48 last year. These serve three main markets: public sector, enterprise and financial technology.
It is the fintech arm that is driving growth. In 2021, Chapters bought an initial stake in Fintiba – a company providing ‘blocked accounts’ to international students and expat workers, who need to show proof of funds as part of their visa requirements.
Having since built that stake up to 55 per cent, the company recently acquired two of Fintiba’s main competitors: Coracle and Expatrio.
The deal has excited investors. Chapters’ shares are up 80 per cent in the year to date, pushing the company’s market capitalisation through the €1bn barrier.
Alexander Zienkowicz, an analyst at MWB Research, expects Chapters’ enlarged fintech business to increase sales from €42mn last year to €55mn this year as it broadens the suite of financial products it offers. Zienkowicz expects Chapters’ earnings per share (EPS) to soar to €1.12 this year, from €0.22 last year.
Name
Country
Revenue ($mn, LTM)
Op margin (%)
PE (x, NTM)
ROIC (%)
1
Capricorn
Aus
236
38.6
24.2
26
2
Samyang
S Kor
1,267
20
24.8
30.2
3
Argenx
Bel
2,190
-2.9
44.4
14
4
CATL
Chi
50,555
14
18.5
15.8
5
Kitron
Nor
700
7.4
26.8
9.4
6
Swissquote
Sui
835
47.5
24.9
28.6
7
Chapters
Ger
120
-11.1
40.2
-5
8
Pop Mart
HK
1,812
31.5
37.7
32.2
9
Be Semi
Ned
657
32.3
61.6
20.5
10
Com7
Thai
2,241
5.3
13.7
36.3
11
CD Projekt
Pol
247
37.2
83.7
37.2
12
A2 Milk
NZ
1,014
12.4
31.7
13.1
LTM = Last 12 months. NTM = Next 12 months. ROIC = Return on Invested Capital
Pop Mart
Domicile: Hong Kong
Market cap: $44.5bn
Compound annual return: 33%
Free float: 50.4%
Toys and gifts retailer Pop Mart (HK:9992) saw its revenue more than double to Rmb13bn (£1.3bn) last year, while pre-tax profit more than trebled to Rmb4.4bn. The reason for this is the runaway success of Labubu – an ugly-looking range of soft toy monsters created by artist Kasing Lung, for which Pop Mart has the global rights.
Pop Mart is riding on the back of what Morgan Stanley analysts described in June as a “global social media bandwagon”, with Google Trends data showing that Labubu “is drawing attention worldwide at a level similar to Harry Potter, Star Wars and Disney”. JPMorgan’s analysts argue that Labubu could become to Pop Mart what Hello Kitty is to Japan’s Sanrio (JP:8136) – a “super IP” that by itself could generate sales of up to Rmb14bn by 2027.
After Labubu’s initial success in Asia, Pop Mart is focusing on boosting sales in North America and Europe this year – overseas revenue rose by 475-480 per cent in the first quarter. Given such numbers, its share price has unsurprisingly soared.
The shares are up 566 per cent over the past 12 months. They trade at a chunky price/earnings (PE) ratio of 38, and a price/sales ratio of 11. Even at this level, there are plenty who argue that it is undervalued – 26 of the 32 analysts covering the stock have a buy or overweight rating, according to FactSet.
“We think Pop Mart will be one of the fastest-growing global brands on record,” Morgan Stanley’s analysts say.
BE Semiconductor
Domicile: The Netherlands
Market cap: $11.8bn
Compound annual return: 30.9%
Free float: 86%
BE Semiconductor (NL:BESI), known as Besi, doesn’t make chips, but it does make a range of machinery that it sells to chipmakers.
This is a highly cyclical market, but in general the company generates fabulous margins – over the past five years, gross margins have averaged 60 per cent and operating margins 38 per cent.
Amid a global spending spree on chips to serve demand for AI training models, management thinks the company can do even better. Last month, Besi lifted its 2030 gross margin target to 64-68 per cent, and its operating margin target to 40-55 per cent. The revenue goal was also raised from “€1bn-plus” to €1.5bn-€1.9bn. Last year’s sales were just over €600mn.
Since 2011, the company has returned about a third of the cumulative revenue it has generated to shareholders through dividends and buybacks (about €2.2bn in total).
The shares have rallied strongly since mid-April, and the question for investors is how much of its expected growth is already priced in. On current forecasts, the stock looks quite pricey at a PE ratio of 62, compared with a five-year average of 39. Yet if earnings grow as quickly as consensus estimates imply, the valuation falls to 33 times on next year’s numbers alone.
Com7
Domicile: Thailand
Market cap: $1.5bn
Compound annual return: 30.3%
Free float: 44.4%
Com7 (TH:COM7) is Thailand’s biggest seller of laptops, mobile phones and other IT equipment. Co-founded by chief executive Sura Khanittaweekul in 1996, when only 10 per cent of the population had access to a computer, it has ridden the boom in consumer electronics, with phones being the core product (60 per cent of last year’s sales).
Although they have a good long-term record, Com7 shares have fallen by 55 per from their peak three years ago. Economic growth in Thailand has been weak post-Covid and is expected to slow again this year. Com7 cut its store footprint last year (mainly exiting partnership stores and department store concessions) but consensus forecasts are for EPS to grow by 12 per cent this year.
Maybank analyst Wasu Mattanapotchanart expects this to be driven by consumers seeking AI-enabled handsets, plus market share gains. His target price implies an upside of about 50 per cent from where the shares currently trade.
CD Projekt
Domicile: Poland
Market cap: $7.2bn
Compound annual return: 27.2%
Free float: 66.4%
The games developer behind the popular Cyberpunk series, CD Projekt (PL:CDR) had a fantastic share price run-up in the decade to December 2020, at which point the shares topped out at 464 zlotys (about £95).
Their decline from that peak was due to the botched launch of the eagerly anticipated Cyberpunk 2077 title in the run-up to Christmas that year. CD Projekt was subsequently forced to pull the game from many consoles after users complained that it was riddled with bugs.
Although it had managed to generate a hefty profit in 2020 due to the heavy buying in the days following the release, the bad reviews affected subsequent sales, and profits in the following year fell by 80 per cent.
Other games have since fared better, with the launch of the Phantom Liberty expansion for the (since-improved) Cyberpunk 2077 in 2023 allowing the company to beat analysts’ expectations that year.
Things have generally been on the up since, too, and the company announced alongside a strong set of first-quarter numbers this year that Cyberpunk 2 has moved from a conceptual to a pre-production phase.
Yet with no significant launches planned, analysts’ forecasts are for EPS to weaken for the next two years before surging again in 2027 on the back of the release of the fourth edition of its popular The Witcher series.
A2 Milk Company
Domicile: New Zealand
Market cap: $3.42bn
Compound annual return: 25.1%
Free float: 94.1%
A2 Milk Company (NZ:ATM) produces a type of milk without the protein that makes digestion difficult for some.
Cows produce two types of beta-casein proteins, A1 and A2. A1 proteins are those that cause digestion issues. The company established a method to identify cows that naturally produce only A2 proteins and then built a range of products based on this.
The biggest seller has been infant milk formula, especially into China and other Asian markets, where A2 generates 68 per cent of its revenue. A2 has become a top-five player in the Chinese infant milk formula market.
The shares, which hit highs of almost NZ$22 (975p) pre-pandemic, have traded in a relatively narrow range of between about $4 and $9 in more recent years. Earnings fell sharply during the pandemic and are taking time to rebuild. Sluggish Chinese birth rates are also a “headwind”, says Morningstar analyst Angus Hewitt.
The business model still retains its attractions, however. A2 Milk markets the products but they are made under licence by third parties, which means its capital requirements are low and it throws off a lot of cash. This year, it has introduced its first dividend and a policy of returning between 60 and 80 per cent of net profit.
Accessing shares
The unsung nature of many of these shares means they tend to be harder to buy on investment platforms than their mainstream peers. Specialist stock trading sites such as Trading 212, Interactive Brokers and IG include the majority of our selections in their list of tradable securities, but the largest players such as Hargreaves Lansdown provide more limited access. South Korea’s Samyang and Thailand’s Com7 are largely inaccessible to UK investors, but we include them for the sake of comprehensiveness. Many platforms are also open to investor requests for trading in specific stocks.
High high-yielding telecoms company is facing large capex requirements to build out its fibre optic network
Arthur Sants
Arthur Sants
Strong free cash flow
Boost from tax changes in US spending bill
The story of the US telecoms sector is similar to the UK. There are a few large providers that are spending a lot to build out fast fibre optic broadband, and they have racked up a lot of debt as they compete with each other.
For AT&T (US:T), it needs to outcompete Verizon (US:VZ) and Comcast (US:CMCSA) for new customers. Considering the strength of this competition, AT&T is performing well. In the three months to June, it added 243,000 consumer fibre customers, helping increase revenues 18.9 per cent to $2.1bn (£1.6bn). In areas where its broadband cables don’t reach, AT&T provides “internet air” over its wireless network, and this added 203,000 customers.
Building out this network has been expensive. It allocated $22bn towards capex last year and plans to do the same again this year. The recent “One Big Beautiful” spending bill passed by Congress could act as an incentive in this regard. The bill says companies can now deduct the full cost of capex immediately from the tax bill, rather than over time, which translates to billions of immediate cash flow benefits. AT&T now says it expects $6.5bn to $8bn of extra cash savings up to 2027, and it plans to invest half of this back into the network.
This will help boost its strong free cash flow, which was up 10 per cent last quarter to $4.4bn. This is needed given its net debt is over 100 per cent of its net assets, and interest rates are rising. The balance sheet risk is reflected in the share price. It currently trades on a forward free cash yield of 9 per cent, which is cheaper than its UK peer BT (BT.A). This is despite AT&T growing at a much faster pace. Buy.
Last IC View: na
AT&T (US:T)
ORD PRICE:
$27.53
MARKET VALUE:
$ 198bn
TOUCH:
$27.50-$27.55
12-MONTH HIGH:
$29.2
LOW: $18.1
DIVIDEND YIELD:
4.0%
PE RATIO:
16
NET ASSET VALUE:
$16.86
NET DEBT:
115%
Half-year to 30 Jun
Total net revenues ($bn)
Pre-tax profit ($bn)
Earnings per share ($)
Dividend per share ($)
2024
59.8
9.96
0.96
0.56
2025
61.5
12.1
1.22
0.56
% change
+3
+21
+27
-
Ex-div:
10 Jul
Payment:
01 Aug
*Includes intangible assets of $68.7bn or $9.5 a share.
First-half profits drop at British Gas’ parent company but investors are backing the power of nuclear
Alex Hamer
Alex Hamer
Profits down on warmer weather and low power prices
Investment programme ramping up, led by Sizewell C
British Gas owner Centrica (CNA) was keen to show off its heightened interest in nuclear power at its interim results, leading with a new £1.3bn commitment to the Sizewell C power plant and including the potential to lengthen the operating lives of its existing plants.
At the same time, the residential gas business saw a 15 per cent drop in adjusted operating profit, to £133mn, as the first-half warmer weather and power prices knocked performance. This was balanced out by the small business division bringing in an adjusted operating profit of £46mn compared with £3mn the year before. The reported profit went negative with more than £600mn in impairments, compared with gains of a similar amount in the first half of 2024.
A few market challenges, which included a dive in trading profits, weren’t enough to keep dividends down – the interim payout was up over a fifth to 183p.
Speaking on the morning of the interim results, management underlined how much Centrica is leaning on the government and the regulator Ofgem for various rule changes and support mechanisms in the coming years. These range from its potential actions when a customer doesn’t pay their bill to the conditions in which it would invest in carbon storage in Morecambe.
The company is coming off a win in the debate over zonal power pricing, in which the government backed the status quo of a single national price.
Front of the queue right now is a government review of the gas market.
This comes as Centrica’s Rough gas storage facility is on track to post an operating loss of up to £100mn this year. “If we don’t have a positive outcome from the consultation, then it’s hard to see how Rough will be open beyond the end of this coming winter,” said chief executive Chris O’Shea.
Centrica is pleased with the £1.3bn Sizewell deal, and analysts were asking management whether it could put more into the investment. It likely will, and greater public and private cash coming into the sector will help with growth. Buy.
It remains on track to meet its short- and medium-term targets
Mark Robinson
Mark Robinson
Strengthening demand for broadband
Measures taken to offset NI increase
BT Group (BT.A) delivered an encouraging trading update for the June quarter, along with separate news that the group’s chief financial officer Simon Lowth is to retire from the board, and be replaced by Patricia Cobian, who currently holds the same role at Virgin Media O2.
The telecoms group is seeing strengthening demand for broadband and mobile connectivity across all its brands, with “record Openreach fibre take-up again”.
Full fibre additions for its Openreach brand came in at 0.57mn premises, a 46 per cent increase year-on-year. The take-up rate was on the rise, with Openreach extending its national footprint, although Openreach broadband lines fell by 169,000 connections, “driven by losses to competitors and a weaker broadband market”.
The group’s consumer customer base grew during the period, with its mobile base up by 41,000, but average revenue per consumer broadband user contracted by 2 per cent to £41.90. Adjusted UK business service revenue pulled back by a similar margin, but the main pressures on profitability have been evident in the international segment.
BT Group, in common with every other employer in the country, has had to contend with rising costs. In response, it has been trimming costs across all its business units, “fully offsetting higher employer costs of national living wage and national insurance”. Energy usage across its networks fell, along with the total labour resource. Openreach repair volumes were down 14 per cent.
The group has predicted that its total labour force will shrink appreciably between now and 2030. A reduced cost base should support margin expansion, although the group’s financial performance is intertwined with the speed of the full fibre rollout. The group’s chief executive Allison Kirkby reassured investors that BT remains “on track to deliver our targets for this year, next year, and the end of the decade”.
The share price initially rose by around 4 per cent in response to the update.
The half year was more of a gentle trot for the black horse, rather than a thrilling gallop
Julian Hofmann
Julian Hofmann
Loan book growth edges up
Slower than expected base rate cuts
Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) is the bank most closely aligned with the health and performance of the UK economy, so investors are used to looking for signs that better times might lie ahead. A flat share price on the morning of its update suggested the market isn’t optimistic, but the its operating performance was still respectable.
It may take a while for the auguries to return with an answer, so the best that management could offer was that the performance at the interims would underpin forecasts for the rest of the year. They are that underlying net income would be £13.5bn for 2025, with a return on tangible equity (RoTE) of 13.5 per cent, with the bank already halfway to achieving that target.
Otherwise, the half-year results offered few clues that the bank’s, and perhaps the country’s underlying economic performance, is anything more than par for the course. Certainly, loan book growth that was just one percentage point higher at £471bn is not a sign of consumers loosening the purse strings. Despite this, there was a better performance for net interest income, which was seven per cent higher at £6.47bn, which pointed to the basic advantage that financial institutions currently have.
Lloyds, like all banks, has enjoyed the benefits of a higher interest rate environment, which, while on a downward slope, has lasted for longer than most had dared hope. This means its natural hedge, whereby balances are invested at higher rates, was responsible for a significant proportion of the rise in net income. This had a notional value of £244bn at 30 June.
It also helped that the bank’s notoriously sticky operating expenses were broadly stable at £5.44bn, despite an inflationary environment for many of its costs, particularly in the already troublesome motor finance division.
Within this metric, it was a relief that the provision for motor finance, though an additional £37mn was recognised in the half, was well down on the £97mn charge it took this time last year. In the context of the overall provision of £1.15bn, this was not materially significant. Like everyone in the sector, the bank awaits the judgment of the Supreme Court after an appeal was heard in April.
With a FactSet consensus for price-to-earnings of 7.7 for this year, Lloyds is hardly expensive, but, on the evidence of the results, that valuation reflects a fundamentally ponderous economy in the UK. Hold.
Is a private equity trust buyout bad news for investors?
Deep pockets might be required
Dave Baxter
Dave Baxter
M&A activity has been rising at some pace for investment trusts in recent years, be it trusts absorbing rivals or vehicles being taken private.
The latter strategy has seen multiple alternative asset funds disappear, including BBGI Global Infrastructure, Foresight Sustainable Forestry and the music royalty trusts. Now, one sector previously unaffected by the M&A wave looks likely to see a take-private bid succeed.
Private equity vehicle Apax Global Alpha (APAX) has received a recommended offer from Apax Partners, and that has led to a rally in the trust’s shares and in the wider sector. But there are differing opinions on whether the deal represents a good outcome, and whether it could be the first of many such bids in the private equity sector.
There are some sensible arguments for accepting the bid. The trust has run into some trouble, with Numis analysts noting that performance has been weak since 2021.
They argue that such struggles have delayed potential asset sales, leaving less money free for shareholder-pleasing measures such as buybacks. Bad performance, an entrenched share price discount and the fact that Apax shares are illiquid (thanks to 42 per cent of the investor base being current or former employees of the private equity firm) might persuade investors to take the deal.
The problem is that this bid does come at a significant discount to a recent measure of net asset value (NAV), depriving those who choose to cash out rather than roll over into a private vehicle of a potential recovery. The disappearance of this trust would also deprive UK investors of choice more generally.
But private equity trusts’ price tags certainly suggest more trusts could disappear in this fashion: almost all names in the sector trade on double-digit discounts, with the more diversified HarbourVest Global Private Equity (HVPE) and Pantheon International (PIN) seeing their shares lag NAV by more than 30 per cent. More simple portfolios with a concentrated list of direct investments, such as Oakley Capital (OCI), are also on substantial discounts.
However, the Apax bid is arguably simplified by its specific circumstances. Stifel analysts have described this as a “family and friends” deal, given the presence of Apax employees on the shareholder register, and suspect the price reflects the fact that many shareholders will roll over into the new private vehicle and avoid “the vagaries of share price discounts to NAV seen on the listed funds”.
In Stifel’s view, bids for other trusts would probably need to be proportionally higher. “In terms of a ‘read across’ on the rest of the sector, we think prices offered would need to be closer to NAV to get deals over the line,” it says.
The team also believes other factors stand in the way of other private equity groups delisting their trusts via a takeover, including a desire to hold on to the fee income available from running a trust and the fear that they may end up ultimately being outbid for the assets.
As such, it doesn’t seem certain that we will see a wave of further deals in the sector, and if we do they may need to be much closer to NAV to succeed.
That’s bad news for investors who want out at a short-term uplift, but good for those who want options and the chance to ride any eventual recovery in the sector’s depressed shares.
Coke versus Pepsi: Why investors have a clear favourite
The drinks behemoths’ share prices have diverged in recent months, and one has made it onto the US president’s radar
Hugh Moorhead
Hugh Moorhead
Pick up any soft drink and there is a decent chance you will find the Coca-Cola (US:KO) or PepsiCo(US:PEP) brand somewhere on the label. This reach, alongside the pure brand recognition each company offers, makes them appealing when investors are looking for quality defensive names.
That is not to say that they are one and the same, though. The companies’ second-quarter earnings have strengthened the impression that Coca-Cola is more likely to be the one to give investors more than just a sugar rush.
Both Coca-Cola and Pepsi exceeded analysts’ expectations in the second quarter, and reiterated their FY2025 organic sales growth guidance. More favourable exchange rates drove small upgrades to earnings guidance.
Pepsi has been more exposed to softening US consumer sentiment in recent quarters, and North America food and drink sales were flat in the first half at $25bn (£18.4bn). By contrast, its international business performed strongly, increasing revenues by 6 per cent over the same period.
Coca-Cola’s first-half North America performance was stronger, with sales up 3 per cent.
The company has also agreed to release a new US product that uses sugar cane as a sweetener after pressure from notable Coke drinker Donald Trump. The company’s overall net revenue for the first half was $23.7bn, flat on the year before.
The corporate structures of Coca-Cola and Pepsi are very different. The former is a pure-play beverages company, selling more than 200 different brands of sodas, waters, juices and other drinks. Pepsi has its own broad array of beverages, but also sells snacks, primarily through its crisp-oriented Frito-Lay business.
There are also differences in distribution. Coca-Cola manufactures its own concentrates and syrups before distributing these to its licensed bottling partners, such as London-listed Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCH). This capital-light business model contrasts with Pepsi, which largely owns and operates its own bottling facilities.
Coca-Cola has consistently demonstrated a greater ability to increase its prices. Partly this is due to product mix. Private-label penetration is much lower for soft drinks than potato chips, argue analysts at Morgan Stanley, so consumers trading down during times of economic uncertainty will have less of an impact on Coca-Cola than Pepsi. In the first half of this year, Pepsi’s pricing in North American beverages business rose by 3 per cent, but was flat in the equivalent food division.
Coke’s greater emerging market exposure is also supportive. These consumers are more used to inflation and less likely to balk at price increases, the analysts said.
Most of all, however, the company’s brand recognition is strong. Its marketing strategy is highly effective, including the recently relaunched ‘Share a Coke’ campaign. The company has consistently gained or maintained market share in recent quarters, including in maturer, rich-world markets. First-half revenues reflected this superiority: Coca-Cola was able to increase its price/mix by 5 per cent ahead of Pepsi, which, when international businesses are factored in, mustered a rise of 3 per cent.
Make America Healthy Again
Consumers are increasingly seeking out healthier products, a trend that has sparked acquisitions at both companies. Coca-Cola took full control of Fairlife, a maker of high-protein milk and protein shakes, in January 2020, having previously held a minority stake. Analysts at Morgan Stanley expect this to contribute 100-140 basis points to the company’s medium-term sales growth.
Within its legacy brands, the company’s Coke Zero offering has achieved double-digit volume growth in each of the past four quarters, while Diet Coke volume has also climbed in North America for four consecutive quarters.
Pepsi, meanwhile, has recently acquired Poppi, a probiotic soda business, for $2bn. A key part of its US strategy is also growing its healthier snack sales and offerings.
Tariff neutral
For two businesses with huge global footprints, Coca-Cola and Pepsi are relatively insulated from tariff dramas. Coca-Cola chief executive James Quincey has previously called the impact “manageable”, while acknowledging that inputs such as orange juice and resin will be affected.
Pepsi acknowledged that tariffs have resulted in unquantified increases to input costs, and said that it is taking actions to mitigate the impact.
Although a more benign foreign exchange outlook should benefit both companies’ FY2025 earnings by more than initially expected, the dollar’s weakness against other developed world currencies does not translate into an immediate earnings uplift. Both companies use hedging to mitigate currency volatility, and certain key emerging market currencies have underperformed even the dollar in the year to date.
After performing in lockstep for much of the past five years, the two companies’ share prices have diverged in the past 12 months, as Coca-Cola’s superior defensive qualities have come to the fore.
Coca-Cola now trades on 22 times its FY2027 earnings, a 30 per cent premium to Pepsi, a reflection of its superior product mix and pricing power. It may be some time before its rival catches up.
Why is this Aim riser worth one-60th of its US peer?
Ilika may appear sub-scale. But when it comes to innovation, bigger isn’t always better
Bearbull
Solid-state batteries, named for their use of a solid electrolyte to conduct electricity, have several advantages over their traditional, liquid equivalents. For the hopeful, those advantages – in compactness, durability, longevity, heat-resistance, charging speed and energy density – are worth pursuing. To the doubters, the technology is the nuclear fusion of batteries: long-promised, forever in the future.
One of the hopefuls is the Nasdaq-listed QuantumScape (US:QS). Spun out of Stanford University in 2010 and headquartered a few miles away in San Jose, it went public in 2020 and has raised close to $2bn (£1.5bn). In 2025, its share price has more than doubled, valuing the pre-revenue company at $7.3bn.
Another is Aim-traded Ilika (IKA). Spun out of Southampton University in 2004 and today headquartered in nearby Romsey, it raised £4.2mn from investors in May, bringing all-time market funding to £72mn. In 2025, its share price has more than doubled, valuing the pre-revenue company at £80mn.
Sure, they do things bigger in the States. But that much better?
Last week provided a chance to find out, as Ilika unveiled results for the year to 30 April. I say “find out”, but sales-free figures only tell you so much. The crucial test – if there’s cash to last the next year – was passed, although only after Ilika’s directors factored in the post-period fundraising. Before then, cash had dropped a third to £8mn, as operating cash outflows and capital expenditure both rose a quarter to £5.2mn and £2.1mn, respectively. And while intangible assets jumped £1mn following the capitalisation of some development spending, the period ended with shareholder equity down 16 per cent, at £17.2mn.
In short, the rate of cash burn – comparable with Quantumscape’s – is high (see chart).
Then again, essential liquidity aside, this isn’t the story investors are focused on. Strip out Ilika’s lease-adjusted cash, net current assets and R&D tax credits, and you’re left with just £8.2mn in net assets – largely comprising intangible assets and property – to which the market has ascribed a value of £71mn.
To see Ilika as 90 per cent potential feels about right. Two decades into its life as a company, and 15 years on from its IPO, its development focus has narrowed. But it is yet to deliver on the plan laid out in its 2010 admission document, namely to develop technologies ripe for market applications.
That’s not to say the company isn’t drawing nearer to its promises. But investors need to ask questions. Here are three to help understand if improved sentiment has further to run.
The Ilika of 2025 is focused on two markets, the first of which involves its oldest technology, the miniature Stereax battery. Long touted for its potential use in a range of connected products, Ilika is now all-in on Stereax’s application in active implantable medical devices such as pacemakers, neurostimulators and smart orthopaedic devices.
Compared with incumbent batteries, Ilika says its solid-state solution allows medical product designers to build longer-life devices that can be charged more rapidly and frequently, thereby lowering leakage and reducing the need for surgical intervention. It has partnered with medical device group (and 3i (III) portfolio company) Cirtec Medical, whose US facility has been fitted to manufacture the Stereax battery.
At first, this will be done in batches to serve a 21-strong, largely US-based customer base with products in various stages of development. And although customer attrition is likely, the hope is that at least some samples could soon turn into bigger orders. Encouragingly, Ilika says Cirtec is readying the additional investment required to enable mass-market manufacturing.
How long will this all take? While medical studies and product trials can be drawn-out, Ilika expects to “commence recognition” of Stereax product revenues this calendar year, having signed a 10-year manufacture licensing agreement with Cirtec in 2023. Other licensing, royalties and fees could follow.
The company’s second (though more anticipated) product is its large-format Goliath battery for use in electric vehicles (EVs). Compared with standard lithium-ion batteries, Ilika says Goliath offers faster charging speeds, higher energy and power density, and extended range. Its ability to operate at higher temperatures also negates the need for costly, complex and heavy safety features in the battery pack.
As such, Ilika claims to have a solution to two of the biggest hurdles to wider EV adoption: range anxiety and affordability. Given these are the focus of the entire automotive industry, this would seem a positive, and explains why Ilika has attracted the interest of a global “portfolio of 21 automotive and consumer appliance” original equipment and tier-one manufacturers, which have the option to license the technology.
The rub is that commercialisation is still a way off. While Ilika has demonstrated that Goliath can be manufactured at scale at the UK Battery Industrialisation Centre, it is not yet out of the proof-of-concept stage and is still investing to simply meet customer requests for samples.
Is there enough focus?
So should investors get excited about Stereax, Goliath, or both? Chief executive Graeme Purdy says each bit of the Venn diagram is occupied. Some Stereax fans think the capital-intensive, slim-margin and high-risk world of EVs is a waste of time, while Goliath bulls see the opportunity for solid-state batteries in vehicles as too big to pass up. “Trying to keep those two opposing parties happy is a challenge,” Purdy adds, noting that while a third camp prefers two diversified and independent subsidiaries, “it wouldn’t surprise me in the future if we have a more delineated strategic alignment”.
Purdy candidly acknowledges that Ilika will probably need to “top up the coffers” in 2026 via a fresh share sale, under terms that are now apparently well understood by investors both institutional and retail (see chart below): raise smaller chunks more frequently and at the market price rather than a huge, massively discounted slab every few years. For an innovation-led company trying to bring a diverse investor base along with it, this is admirable – and may even be more accountable.
But this also requires some tricky plate spinning. More than two-thirds of May’s fundraising was earmarked for the Goliath programme. If Stereax commercialisation progresses at a faster pace, or Goliath prototypes fail to garner much enthusiasm when they are sent out to partners later this year, Ilika’s dual-market strategy could start to face questions.
Then again, investors should recognise that the latter division can rely on support from a UK government keen to support tomorrow’s auto industry. Indeed, since 2017, Ilika has drawn 85 per cent of its £15.1mn income from state grants. Just before its results, it received another boost in the shape of a £1.25mn award from the Advanced Propulsion Centre, part of the state’s £2.5bn DRIVE35 electrification programme, of which £500mn is for research and development. Given Ilika’s participation in past funding schemes, it’s quite likely the company will again benefit from this revenue stream.
Can it compete?
All talk of funding sources will matter little if Ilika loses its momentum, or solid-state batteries fail to crack a battery market which thanks to the explosive growth in EVs has been moving at dizzying speed.
For Goliath, the hurdles seem especially acute. While the likes of Toyota have been talking up solid-state batteries for years, and an increasing array of Chinese EV makers say the technology will soon start to feature in their cars, there is no industry consensus that large-scale manufacturing is cheaper, or inevitable. “Ultimately, it just has to be a better battery, and makes a difference to the consumer,” notes Purdy, who nevertheless points to third-party tests that show Goliath can lower EV makers’ all-in costs.
But if anyone can crack the challenge, who’s to say it will be the 70-person team at Ilika? China’s CATL (HK:3750) – today the largest player in EV batteries – reportedly has 1,000 researchers alone working on solid-state batteries. QuantumScape, whose licensing agreement with cornerstone investor Volkswagen (DE:VOW3) would seem to validate its attempt to build a mass-market battery, has some 800 employees.
“If you pursued that line of logic, you wouldn’t do any innovation outside of the largest companies,” argues Purdy. “We also know the largest companies aren’t always as nimble.” Does the same hold true for China’s state-backed enterprises? “We get Chinese companies coming to visit us almost every month,” he adds. “All they’re interested in is a finished, developed product. I don’t think large Chinese companies have the DNA to develop this technology.”
It’s a bold claim. But for the sceptics, the enormous diversity within today’s existing lithium-ion battery market already shows that different applications require different solutions. In other words, solid-state batteries do not need to dominate the market to have a commercial future.
Stereax, by contrast, reportedly faces “very little competition”. Compared with EVs, that may be a comfort. It could also be a red flag. But when your investment case is built on technological breakthroughs, there are no easy routes forward.
Why is this Aim riser worth one-60th of its US peer?
Ilika may appear sub-scale. But when it comes to innovation, bigger isn’t always better